Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
AI and related technologies will help China hire more people.
We think that AI and related technologies, like robots, drones, and self-driving cars, could take away about 26% of jobs in China over the next 20 years. This is much higher than our estimate of 20% for the UK, but it could also create a lot more jobs in China by increasing productivity, real income, and spending. Our best guess is that the net effect will be to increase the number of jobs in China by about 12%, which would add about 90 million jobs over the next 20 years.
AI and related technologies are expected to take away some jobs and create others in China (2017–2037).
| Job displacement | Job creation | Net effect | ||||
| % | Millions | % | Millions | % | Millions | |
| Services | -21% | -72 | 50% | 169 | 29% | 97 |
| Construction | -25% | -15 | 48% | 29 | 23% | 14 |
| Industry | -36% | -59 | 39% | 63 | 3% | 4 |
| Agriculture | -27% | -57 | 16% | 35 | -10% | -22 |
| Total | -26% | –204 | 38% | 297 | 12% | 93 |
Several unknowns
Even though our best guess is that the long-term net effect of AI on jobs in China will be positive, there are a lot of unknown factors that could tip the balance in either direction. There will also be a lot of trouble in the job market because millions of people will have to change jobs and maybe even move.
Chances of making money
China is a great place for businesses to invest in AI and related technologies, which will open up a lot of opportunities in all areas of business, from marketing and personalizing products to R&D, productivity, human resource processes, and cyber security. But there will also be a lot of change in how business is done in every part of the economy, as we have already seen in the media, entertainment, finance, and retail industries.
There’s no room to rest easy.
From the point of view of both business and government policy, our analysis shows that there is no room for complacency. The challenge for the government is to maximize the benefits (by, for example, putting in place the Next Generation AI Plan and continuing to put a lot of money into developing world-class AI skills) while minimizing the costs (like how it affects jobs and income inequality) (e.g., through retraining schemes for displaced workers and a stronger social safety net for those who find it hard to adjust to the new technologies). This is the only way to get as many people as possible to enjoy the great benefits of AI and related technologies.
READ MORE ARTICLES:
